Statistically Speaking: Giving Chase

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NASCAR has added a level of drama to the series by awarding Chase seed bonus points for winning races. The bonus system has caused Jimmie Johnson to rise to the challenge and take five trophies during the regular season, securing at least a share of the top spot once the Chase starts.

The system affected his teammate Jeff Gordon in the opposite manner, however. By overdriving and compulsively gambling, the No. 24 team is systematically destroying the momentum that 20 top-10s in the first 22 races of 2007 built. Of course, all that negative energy could be re-channeled if Gordon wins Saturday's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond. Another victory would tie him with Johnson for the points lead when the Chase begins at New Hampshire.

NASCAR picked the right time to add this new element to the playoffs, because for the first time in its brief four-year history, it appears the Chase lineup heading into the final race of the regular season will be the same after the race – at least in terms of who's in and who's out.

Of course, if NASCAR had not made a change to the number of drivers qualifying for the playoffs, this race would have plenty of significance for the racers on the bubble, but that will be covered later.

In each of the first three Chase seasons, one driver – and one driver alone – has reached down deep into his competitive reserves and climbed into Chase contention at Richmond, while another team succumbed to the pressure.

In the inaugural season of 2004, the Chase produced nine drivers to watch in the final regular-season race. Four drivers that were inside the top 10 had a mathematical chance to be overtaken, while five drivers outside the top 10 had a shot at making up enough ground to climb into the Chase.

Jeremy Mayfield was 14th in the standings entering the Richmond and few experts gave him much of a chance to advance. But he dominated the race – winning after leading the most laps – and that propelled him five positions up the grid and into the Chase.

His teammate Kasey Kahne was the driver displaced from among the Chase contenders when he had a bad run that left him a lap off the pace in 24th. That caused him to drop three positions and slip to 12th in the standings.

In 2005, four drivers 10th or better in the standings were in mathematical jeopardy of missing the Chase, while six drivers pursued them. This time, Ryan Newman earned enough points with his 12th-place finish to climb up one spot into 10th, while Jamie McMurray plummeted three positions down the grid after crashing out of the race on lap 362 of the 400-lap affair. McMurray finished 40th.

In 2006, only one driver had a shot at climbing into the top 10, but he chased eight cars that were in mathematical jeopardy. Kahne finished third a year ago and made up for getting bumped in 2004 by displacing Tony Stewart, who finished 18th.

In 2007, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch are in danger of losing the 12th and final transfer position to Dale Earnhardt Jr., but those are the only three drivers whose destiny is not ordained.

There are several different scenarios that would allow Earnhardt to climb into the top 12, but the driver he is most likely to catch is Harvick. Earnhardt has to finish fifth or better to have a chance to advance, while Harvick need only finish 32nd or better to clinch his berth. The numbers for Busch are slightly better, which means that one of these two drivers has to experience catastrophic failure to allow NASCAR's streak of a spot being transferred at Richmond to continue.

Harvick has the most experience of all the drivers in the field in battling for the final transfer position. In the first three seasons, he's been on the bubble every year. He sat 15th in the standings in 2004 and 2005 and needed a minor miracle (which he didn't get) to climb to 10th.

In 2006, Harvick should have been comfortably in the show with his third-place position in the standings, but at 147 points ahead of Kahne in 11th, a last-place finish – coupled with a string of mediocre runs for everyone else inside the top 10 and a victory by Kahne – conceivably could have tossed him out of the playoffs.

Of course, the rules this season have changed with NASCAR taking 12 drivers into the Chase instead of 10.

If NASCAR had left the old rules in place, Martin Truex Jr. would sit on the hot seat as the 10th-place driver in the standings, with Busch and Harvick taking aim. Busch is only 20 points behind Truex, while Harvick is 38 points in arrears. If Truex had a strong showing, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch and Jeff Burton also would have been mathematically within reach, and NASCAR almost certainly would have one more Chase lineup decided by the final regular-season race.

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