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Thursday, September 6, 2007

Playoffs positioning hits crunch time at Richmond

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Answers to pressing questions heading into Saturday's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Nextel Cup race at Richmond International Raceway:
Q: Who will make the Chase for the Nextel Cup and who will not?

A: The 12-driver field for NASCAR's 10-race run to the championship probably will be set by the time the checkered flag falls at Richmond.


TEAM REPORTS: Nextel Cup news, notes

Going into Saturday night's race, eight drivers have secured their place in the Chase and two more are virtual locks. That leaves Dale Earnhardt Jr. precariously perched on the outside looking in.

Even if he runs magnificently, Earnhardt will need a lot of luck. The worst he can finish to have a chance at making the Chase is fifth — and that's if he leads the most laps and Kevin Harvick (currently in 12th place) finishes last. If he fails to lead a lap, Earnhardt must finish third or better to have any hope.

Even if he wins — something Earnhardt last did in a Nextel Cup race at Richmond on May 6, 2006 — all Harvick needs to do is finish 32nd or better to shut him out of the Chase. Kurt Busch, 11th in points, would have to finish 36th or better to do the same.

"I know we're a long way back, and even though we have a mathematical chance, we're going to worry about things within our own control," said Earnhardt, currently 128 points behind Harvick and 141 behind Busch. "What we can do is take that white car out there and be as aggressive as we can be. Let's lead all the laps and win the thing. If we make the Chase, great. But we know it's the longest of long shots."

Maybe running a 30th anniversary Tribute to Elvis paint scheme will help Earnhardt, who finished 13th in the spring race at Richmond. Busch finished fifth, while Harvick, the defending champ in the September race, was seventh.

Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. need only to start to secure enough points to clinch positions nine and 10.

Q: What are the series points leaders thinking?

A: Jeff Gordon, who has led the standings since the fifth week of the season, knows that will change unless he wins at Richmond.

Gordon has won four races this season. Jimmie Johnson, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, has won five and will assume a 10-point lead in the standings when the drivers are reseeded for the Chase. All qualifying drivers will begin next week with 5,000 points plus 10 bonus points per victory.

"Guys are really fighting hard to get those bonus points and get positioned a little bit better for the Chase," Gordon said. "I'm just glad we've already clinched a spot and don't have to worry about racing our way in."

Jeff Burton, locked into the Chase field, says Richmond will be important as teams continue to accumulate information on the Car of Tomorrow. Five of the 10 races in the Chase will feature the new, boxier model.

"Our goal is to go out there and learn," he said. "We're still building new cars for the Chase. We are going to experiment a little bit and try some things we don't get a chance to try and see if we can get smarter. At (the) same time, we are going to try and win the race."

Q: Which cars are best-positioned to win?

A: Eleven drivers have won the last 12 Cup races at Richmond. It's difficult to envision anyone but a Chevrolet driver winning.

The Hendrick Motorsports cars have been dominant at Richmond. Gordon and Johnson each led more than 100 laps in the spring race, with Johnson winning and Gordon taking fourth. Kyle Busch, who led 27 laps, finished second. Last September, Busch led 248 laps when he finished second to Harvick.

Although Johnson is coming off a victory at California Speedway, Busch could be the man to beat. He has never been out of the top five at Richmond, with an average finishing position of 3.4 in five starts.

Denny Hamlin, in a Joe Gibbs Racing Chevy, also has done well at Richmond with a second, third and 15th in his three starts.

Q: Which teams struggle at RIR?

A: Michael Waltrip blows away the field in this category. He's never finished higher than ninth in 41 starts.

Others who've had difficulty include Elliott Sadler (never higher than seventh in 17 starts), Jamie McMurray (never higher than ninth in nine starts) and Dave Blaney, whose fourth place last September was his best showing in 14 attempts.

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Article Number: 000020

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