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Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond (Va.) International Raceway. All statistical references are for Nextel Cup races at Richmond unless otherwise indicated.
1. Jeff Gordon. Gordon has four wins this season. What he needs now is momentum. It needs to start Saturday night at Richmond, not next week in the first race of the Chase for the NASCAR Nextel Cup. His fourth-place finish in May broke a string of finishes of 31, 40, 30 and 39. This is no time to revert to those rotten Richmond runs.
2. Tony Stewart. Stewart has four top 10s in his past five races at Richmond. He seems to run better when he's angry, and he hasn't been angry lately. Four hundred laps on a short track might take care of that.
3. Denny Hamlin. All right, kid. We're finally in Richmond, and this is the one you want. Hamlin is from suburban Richmond, and Richmond races mean the world to him. In his three Cup starts at RIR, he has a third, 15th and second.
4. Carl Edwards. Edwards qualifies well (10.3) but doesn't finish well (17.0). That's not like him. He qualified second and finished 12th in May. Considering how strong he was in winning at Bristol last month, I'm expecting a better finish this time around.
5. Matt Kenseth. The best way to describe Kenseth's performance of late is background noise. Kenseth led 10 of the first 12 races this season (253 laps) but has led only four of the past 13 (35 laps, 31 in one race). Like Gordon, he has zero momentum right now. He finished 10th at RIR in May.
Five to watch:
Jimmie Johnson, 6th. This is a big race for Johnson. He won last week and won at Richmond in May. He has a season-high five wins, and a victory Saturday not only will give him 60 bonus points to start the Chase, but also send a signal to the Chase field that Johnson's midseason doldrums are over and he will be a favorite to repeat as champion.
Kyle Busch, 8th. Busch's driver rating is 115.2, second only to Kevin Harvick's 125.4. It was Harvick who edged him out in this race last year after Busch led 248 laps. Then in May, Busch finished second again, this time to Johnson. With five top fives in five career Cup races at Richmond, the only thing left for Busch is to win. If we know that, you can be sure he does, too.
Kurt Busch, 11th. Busch and Harvick are the only two drivers in the top 12 not locked into the Chase. All Busch has to do is finish 36th, and it won't matter what Dale Earnhardt Jr. does. Junior can lead all 400 laps and he still won't make the Chase if Busch finishes 36th or better or Harvick finishes 32nd or better. Busch finished fifth in May after starting 33rd.
Kevin Harvick, 12th. Harvick has his own issues to deal with and undoubtedly could care less about the Junior Watch. Harvick hasn't won since the Daytona 500, and he hasn't had a top 10 since the end of July at Indianapolis. Enter Richmond, where Harvick has excelled in the past five races, all top 10 finishes, including his win last September. His 599 laps led in those races are more than 300 better than second-place Kyle Busch. If Harvick is going to make noise in the Chase, he needs to get out his drum set now.
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 13th. Junior is 128 points behind Harvick and 141 behind Kurt Busch and basically needs a miracle to get into the Chase. Here's something else he needs: No cars to drop out of the race early (unless, of course, it's the No. 2 of Busch or the No. 29 of Harvick). If too many cars break down or there is an accident that claims a bunch of cars, those cars will fill in the lowest finishing spots, places Junior needs to stay open for Harvick or Busch. Is that asking a lot? Absolutely. It also magnifies Junior's five DNFs this season, four for engine problems.
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