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RICHMOND, Sept. 8 -- Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s hopes of qualifying for the 12-driver Chase for the Nextel Cup have been almost extinguished -- "almost" being the operative word for stock-car racing's most popular driver and his legion of fans.
Earnhardt enters Saturday night's Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway in 13th place, 128 points behind Kevin Harvick and 141 behind Kurt Busch. In other words, he needs the equivalent of a home run in the bottom of the ninth to avoid missing the playoffs for the second time in three years.
It's possible but unlikely, the 32-year-old acknowledged Friday afternoon, occasionally referring to his chances in the past tense.
"It's just unfortunate because I feel like we should have made it," Earnhardt said. "I really, really feel like we should have. I didn't even think it would be close. I'm really disappointed that we weren't able to realize that opportunity. There's no real excuse."
Though he made it sound like he's already mathematically eliminated, Earnhardt also knows that a strong performance on Richmond's three-quarter mile, D-shaped oval, coupled with an improbable implosion by Harvick or Busch, could put him in position to make the biggest one-day jump, points-wise, in Chase history.
"We're just going to do the best we can," Earnhardt said. "That's really all we can do. I can't afford to run anything less than 110 percent."
Fortunately for Earnhardt, he knows a thing or two about running fast at Richmond. He has won here three times and has amassed seven top-five finishes and nine top 10s in 16 starts, making it his best track from a statistical standpoint. His last victory, in fact, came here under the lights in May 2006.
For that reason, Harvick and Busch will keep an eye on Earnhardt's car, which is sporting a white, Elvis-themed paint job rather than the familiar red.
"If the [number] eight car is out there dominating and leading every lap, we might worry about where he is because he is leading," Busch said. "All we have to do is make sure we keep the car clean and make sure it is running on eight cylinders.
"Thirty-sixth or better, that's what we have to do. We have to take a conservative approach."
Should Earnhardt fail to qualify for the Chase, it would be a fitting way for his chaotic season to begin winding down. It began with a contentious contract dispute with the team his father founded. Then there was the emotional decision to leave Dale Earnhardt Inc. and sign with rival Hendrick Motorsports beginning next season. And, most recently, there was the public feud with his stepmother, Teresa, over the right to use No. 8 next season at Hendrick.
It would also mark the first time since NASCAR adopted the playoff format in which a driver didn't race his way into the field on the final weekend before the Chase.
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