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Veterans lead pack into Nextel Cup playoff
With wins in each of the last two weeks, and a series-high six wins for the regular season, Jimmie Johnson has become the popular pick to emerge from the Chase for the Nextel Cup as NASCAR's champion.
And with good reason.
Last year he lost his collapses-when-it-counts label by taking the title, and this year the machines of Hendrick Motorsports have dominated contests using the Car of Tomorrow. There will be five of those in the Chase, which equals the number of intermediate tracks over the final 10 races, and those are the types of courses Johnson has excelled on over his career.
But let's not commence the coronation quite yet. While Johnson is certainly the favorite - especially given a 20-point lead on his closest competitor - he will be challenged by a cast of contenders that is as talented and battle-tested as any in the Chase's four seasons.
Among the field are five former champions, seven who've been rookie of the year and three who have been through the playoff hoopla before, so with the festivities set to start Sunday at New Hampshire International Speedway, the only certainty seems to be that the ultimate winner will have earned his hardware.
"It's a really stout field," Johnson said after winning last week at Richmond.
"I said this earlier, this is going to be the most competitive Chase we've seen."
That said, it figures to be unpredictable - but let's take a look at the crystal ball nonetheless.
Here's a peek at the prospective pecking order, divided into those with a definite shot at a title, those who are dangerous, those who could be dark horses, and those who'll need a dream to come true if they're to leave Homestead with the Cup in their hands.
DEFINITES
No. 48 Johnson, No. 24 Jeff Gordon, No. 20 Tony Stewart
Reaffirming that the cream really does rise to the top, the three most accomplished drivers in the field open the playoffs Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in points - and with the oddsmakers convinced the eventual champ is among the trio that's already combined for seven titles.
Sports Club Stats has installed Johnson as the favorite (with a 13.5 percent chance of being champion) because of the momentum accrued by the aforementioned accomplishments, and while that's something Gordon is trying to regain after a sluggish stretch, he's still a threat thanks to how good he's been throughout the season.
He leads the tour in top-five finishes, and his four wins were second most, but the last of those came in early June so there's at least a question to whether Gordon peaked too early. Stewart, meanwhile, is heading in the precisely opposite direction, getting his three DNFs out of the way early, then posting each of his three victories over the last two months.
Stewart is also one to watch for what he did over the last 10 races a year ago. Though he missed the Chase, he won three races in that span, piggybacking another strong performance on top of the 2005 playoff, when he scored five top fives en route to claiming the Cup.
DANGEROUS
No. 99 Carl Edwards, No. 2 Kurt Busch, No. 11 Denny Hamlin
Any of these three could be factors - and each for different reasons.
Edwards is dangerous because of what he's done lately, rattling off four straight top-10 finishes prior to an incident at Richmond, climbing six places in the standings over 16 weeks, and winning twice in 10. He had a great run at NHIS in July until he fell off his jack, so he's confident he can continue his momentum this weekend, and if he can do what he did during his last Chase chance - posting nine top 10s - he could give Roush-Fenway its first title.
Busch is dangerous because he's got the potential to be dynamic. After posting 14 wins over his first five seasons, Busch's pace had slowed significantly since moving to Penske Racing South, but he found his skill again in recent weeks and twice returned to victory lane. The first of those, at Pocono, propelled him into the top 12 and he's raced well enough since then to protect his place. He may have just 10 top 10s for the season, but he's certainly capable of putting a dominant streak together.
Hamlin is dangerous because of his consistency. In 69 career starts he has 38 top 10s compared with just two DNFs, and while he's won just once this year he's been in position for several others. Some he's lost because his crew faltered, while a few suffered because of strategy, and he coughed up a couple strong finishes himself with speeding penalties. If he can rectify those errors, and maintain the rest of his run, last year's third-place finisher could make the final leap.
DARK HORSES
No. 17 Matt Kenseth, No. 29 Kevin Harvick, No. 5 Kyle Busch
The names among this group are a testament to the level of talent in this Chase. Kenseth is a former champion; Harvick has the ability to win a title; and most agree Busch will capture the Cup someday. But each has a flaw that could be fatal for his chances this season.
Kenseth was the ideal driver under NASCAR's old format, but he's simply not built for this sort of short-term test. Though he's one of only two drivers to qualify for the Chase in each of its four seasons, he's totaled just 12 top 10s in his first three tries, and he's never won a Chase race. Over a 10-race run, that's not spectacular enough to beat 11 others.
Harvick, on the other hand, has the capability to be that spectacular. He won at Loudon last September, assuming the points lead in the process, but Harvick's problem this year has been inability to put everything together for more than three weeks in a row. Only twice has he ran three consecutive top 10 races, a dozen times he's wound up worse than 15th, and considering he's closed 14th or worse in five of his last six starts, there's not much suggesting he's about to rattle off a string of strong performances.
Among these three, Busch may be the most capable of putting together a title push, but even after leading in 13 of 26 events, he still came away with just one win during the regular season. That's an indicator he hasn't been able to put total races together, as is the fact Busch's average finish (13.9) is worse than his typical start (13.5). That's rare for a Chase driver, since success on Sunday is always better than being fast on Friday.
DREAMERS
No. 31 Jeff Burton, No. 1 Martin Truex Jr., No. 07 Clint Bowyer
As a veteran of 14 seasons, Burton finds himself at a very different stage than Truex and Bowyer, both of whom are second-year drivers in the Chase for the first time. But as the playoff opens, each piece of the threesome is in a similar situation - needing a career-best stretch to win a title.
Burton once finished among the series' top five for four consecutive seasons, but since then he hasn't had a year in which his average finish was better than 13.4. His best actually came this year, though since ranking among the top 15 in eight straight races to start the year, Burton has five times finished 24th or worse while scoring just six top 10s. Without consistency, victories or momentum, a driver has little shot in the Chase format.
Truex has had all those at different points in the season, but none of them lately. He has five finishes of third or better since winning in Week 13, but in the remaining nine races he has on seven occasions placed outside the top 10. If he can somehow repeat a midseason stretch in which he was no worse than third for four of five weeks, he's got a shot; otherwise, Truex will likely have to wait for his shot at a title.
Bowyer might have to wait for his first title until he gets his first win. Or, for that matter, his first runner-up finish. Six drivers before him have gained entry in the Chase without the benefit of a victory, and none of them have fared well, so Bowyer would have to do something unprecedented in order to challenge - not to mention overcome a 60-point disadvantage.
Then again, at just six points per contest, that's not all that much -- and exactly why anybody could win this thing.
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